Stock Competition 2025

FINAL RESULTS: competition ended 2025-12-31
AUTHOR: Brennen Slaney 
GITHUB: @realslimslaney

1 Final Standings

1.1 Leaderboard

Final Results (Feb 21 - Dec 31, 2025)
Name	Ticker	Return	Start Date	End Date	Start Price	End Price	Dividends	End Value
Mike	AG+	200.98%	2025-02-21	2025-12-31	$5.53	$16.64	$0.01	$16.65
Ryan	NVDA+	38.80%	2025-02-21	2025-12-31	$134.23	$186.27	$0.04	$186.31
Brennen	SD+	27.07%	2025-02-21	2025-12-31	$11.40	$14.03	$0.46	$14.49
Ben	CINF+	26.30%	2025-02-21	2025-12-31	$130.60	$161.48	$3.48	$164.96

Benchmarks
Name	Ticker	Return	Start Date	End Date	Start Price	End Price	Dividends	End Value
S&P 500	^SPX+	13.84%	2025-02-21	2025-12-31	$6,013.13	$6,845.50	$0.00	$6,845.50
Bitcoin	BTC-USD+	−8.96%	2025-02-21	2025-12-31	$96,125.55	$87,508.83	$0.00	$87,508.83

1.2 Performance Over Time

chart_df = (
    df.join(
        df.rename({"close": "start_price"})
        .filter(pl.col("date") == start_date)
        .select(["ticker", "start_price"]),
        on="ticker",
        how="left",
    )
    .with_columns(
        pl.col("close")
        .add(pl.col("dividend").fill_null(0.0).cum_sum().over(pl.col("ticker")))
        .alias("Accumulated Value")
    )
    .with_columns(
        (
            pl.col("factor")
            * (pl.col("Accumulated Value").truediv(pl.col("start_price")) - pl.lit(1))
        ).alias("Return"),
        pl.when(pl.col("factor") == 1)
        .then(pl.col("ticker") + "+")
        .otherwise(pl.col("ticker") + "-")
        .alias("position"),
    )
)

fig = px.line(
    chart_df,
    x="date",
    y="Return",
    color="position",
    line_group="position",
    labels={"Return": "Return", "date": "Date"},
    category_orders={"position": position_order},
    color_discrete_map=position_color_map,
)
for trace in fig.data:
    if trace.name in benchmark_positions:
        trace.line.dash = "dash"
        trace.line.color = "#888"
        trace.line.width = 1.8
    else:
        trace.line.width = 2.5
fig.add_hline(y=0, line_dash="dot", line_color="#999", line_width=1)
fig.update_traces(
    hovertemplate="<b>%{fullData.name}</b><br>%{x|%b %d, %Y}<br>Return: %{y:.2%}<extra></extra>"
)
fig.update_layout(
    title="Total Return by Company",
    legend_title="Ticker",
    yaxis=dict(tickformat=".1%"),
    template="plotly_white",
    hovermode="x unified",
)
fig.show()

fig = px.line(
    df.sort(["ticker", "date"]),
    x="date",
    y="close",
    color="ticker",
    facet_col="ticker",
    facet_col_wrap=2,
    labels={"close": "Stock Price", "date": "Date"},
    category_orders={"ticker": ticker_order},
    color_discrete_map=ticker_color_map,
)
fig.update_layout(
    title="Stock Prices",
    template="plotly_white",
    showlegend=False,
    height=700,
)
fig.update_yaxes(matches=None, showticklabels=True)
fig.update_xaxes(matches=None, showticklabels=True)
fig.for_each_annotation(lambda a: a.update(text=a.text.split("=")[-1]))
fig.update_traces(
    line_width=2,
    hovertemplate="%{x|%b %d, %Y}<br>$%{y:.2f}<extra></extra>",
)
fig.show()

2 Background

Four ambitious gentlemen met in Cleveland on the morning of February 22, 2025 for a colossal inter-industry summoning of the minds. Following hours of deliberation and intense research, the four heads of their respective divisions proposed their leading stock selections for the remainder of the 2025 calendar year.

3 Selections

3.1 Market-Timer Mike

After thorough review of X (formerly Twitter), Market-Timer Mike had an epiphany that it was finally Silver’s time to shine and selected $AG

3.2 Raw Iron Ryan

Ryan put down the weights for a brief minute to check the pulse of his biceps and the market. He knows a chip on a shoulder when he sees one and selected $NVDA

3.3 The Benjamin

What more can we say about this individual other than Company Man? Nothing. Nothing at all. The consummate professional backed his own employer with a selection of $CINF

3.4 Real Slim Slaney

After multiple late nights of research spanning many websites, Brennen knew his selection of $SD was love at first sight because nothing can beat THE POWER OF US.

Selections
Name	Ticker	factor
Ben	CINF	1
Brennen	SD	1
Mike	AG	1
Ryan	NVDA	1
S&P 500	^SPX	1
Bitcoin	BTC-USD	1

4 Appendix

4.1 Full Dataset

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